On the morning of 11 January, 2011, floods in low lying areas of Brisbane began to percolate. Initial evacuations in Fortitude Valley and West End extended to 2,100 streets. The king tide on 14 January led to approximately 20,000 houses being inundated. St Lucia, Rocklea and Graceville were hit hardest. The floating boardwalk connecting New Farm with the Valley was unleashed down the river and luckily was intercepted before colliding with a bridge, which may have caused severe damage. Suncorp Stadium had two metres of water that reached the fourth row of seats in the stadium.
St Lucia (4067)
Stock on market after the floods dropped substantially until August by 40% to 80 after the floods, compared to 2010, where January 2010 was around 80 listings, rising throughout the year to 130 by December 2010. So the floods seems to have set the St Lucia market back by seven months in 2011.
Graceville (4075)
Postcode 4075 takes in Corinda, Graceville, Sherwood and Oxley. Stock on market after the floods dropped by 10% but was back to normal by April 2011. The postcode
only suffered a decline in listings in 2015/2016. Certainly one of the more resilient markets across Greater Brisbane.
Fortitude Valley (4006)
Whilst February 2011 had a 10% decline in listings in 4006 (Fortitude Valley. Bowen Hills, Herston and Newstead) vs a typical increase on January, by March 2011, numbers of listings in the Valley were back to January levels and from there the rest of year continued to regather a slower momentum.
West End (4101)
Whilst listing numbers bounced back in March in the 4101 post code (Highgate Hill, South Brisbane, West End), 2011 turned into a very flat year and this carried through to 2014 when the West End market got more lively, averaging 400+ listings per month compared to 300+ in the period 2010-14.
In February 2022, 1000mm of rain in 72 hours caused inundation into approximately 23,000 properties as well as major issues across the city particularly with burst creeks and rivers.
The CBD, South Bank, South Brisbane, Milton, West End, Windsor, Lutwyche, Gordon Park, Grange, Wooloowin, Toombul and Newstead all took a hammering. Some 177 Brisbane suburbs were impacted and the Enoggera Dam was at 270% of capacity.
South Bank, South Brisbane, West End (4101)
Postcode 4101 (taking in West End, Highgate Hill, South Bank and South Brisbane) had a pivotal moment when the 2022 floods hit. Having been hit hard in 2011, the area was again smashed with inundation, involving lengthy restoration works after many building evacuations. Listing numbers only suffered a brief decline initially but the gross listings per annum have fallen steadily from the high point of the end of 2021 by around 40%.
Milton (4064)
In the short term, the 4064 market didn’t miss a beat, March and April listings in 2022 within 4064, rose above the previous month. However the market yo-yoed after that in an overall decline since, falling by around 22%.
Windsor, Lutwyche, Wooloowin (4030)
Postcode 4030 (Windsor, Wooloowin, Lutwyche, Kalinga) again avoided an immediate decline in listing numbers, going up in March and April 2022. However, the delayed effect has led to there being 45% less listings in 2024 as there were at the end of 2021.
The 4030 postcode appears to carry a big red flag for 2025 and beyond as a result, whilst it’s not a big market, fluctuating between 100 and 200 listings per month compared to many other postcodes that range between 300 and 500. It may be one of many areas in Brisbane to avoid in your 2025 post-Alfred plan.
Gordon Park (4031)
The 4031 postcode carries Kedron as well as Gordon Park. In 2022, the problems in Gordon Park did not hold back the very strong market in Kedron. The 4031 postcode posting increased listing numbers throughout the rest of the year, to see declined listings in 2023 and 2024 overall. Despite that our partner in Kedron, Daniel Hooper has gone from strength to strength, going from one listing in Kedron per month before partnering
with us, to over four per month.
Grange (4051)
The 4051 postcode is wide ranging, taking in Wilston, Newmarket, Gaythorne, Enoggera and Alderley, along with Grange. As a result it doesn’t reflect any one of the six suburbs. The aftermath of the 2022 cyclone saw a strong flow of listings, growing in March and April but from May 2022 onwards declining by 19%.
Newstead (4006)
The 4006 postcode taking in Newstead (as well as Fortitude Valley, Herston and Bowen Hills) saw a steady growth in the aftermath of the 2022 floods. However, 2023 and 2024 saw a slight gradual decline in listings from around 400 per month to 350. Obviously new stock has a major impact in 4006, but the general decline of listings may continue in the next year or so in the aftermath of Cyclone Alfred.
So what are the main takeaways from this small sample size:
- Will the 2nd big flood in 3 years cause short term memories to fade more slowly?
- Will flood zones become a substantial ‘discounter’?
- How will insurance premiums react to the 2nd major flood in 3 years?
- Some suburbs will carry listings momentum into Alfred and retain it briefly afterwards, other areas will have a three to six months decline.
- Amongst agents and agencies, there will be winners and losers in 2025 from Alfred.
Partnering with OMC Group offers a way to build momentum, find out more here.
